Not steep enough to be a signifcant threat of wet loose avalanches
Chances are someone would cut something in a steeper spot (NEAR 40 DEGREES POSSIBLY UNSUPPORTED ABOVE A TERRAIN TRAP).I am not sure how the same slope can be shaded from the sun protected from the wind and recieving significant solar radiation.
an unsupported 30 degree slope that just warmed up to zero likely would be triggered eventually. (I am picturing traversing above a creek on a bench in heavy timber and someone getting too close to the unsupported part)
Average steepness means there are steeper sections which could, very rarely, fail and trigger the slope.
I think the snow is unstable but I don't think the terrain will allow an avalanche to occur (not steep enough) unless there is a small specific terrain feature that is steeper and perhaps convex in shape.
Horrible skiing, may be trigered by skiers crashing at every turn, exposure increases
giving the slope being less than 20 degrees the likelyhood of triggering a slide is small
As the instability is fairly deep and the slope angle is lower certainty of avalanches is lower but find the sweet spot in the steeper areas and look out.
Tough - a clever dude might be able to thread a route and trigger nothing, the average client - probably not.
I would imasgine that triggering an avalanche in corn snow conditions is very unlikely, considering it is a solid crust despite the rain
I just can't help thinking the slab is the problem, lots of snow, cohesive upper layer, cross wind, rising temps - if it is serious for sluffing to be a problem run for your life
its in the shade and therefore not affected by radiation, but deteriorating due to warm temps
thick crust
depends on cut off between 'skiing with moving snow, and loose avalanche. Everybody will experience the former but is it automatically the latter? and if not when does it become so?
again,it'sgenerally hard to trigger a persitent weaklayer buried 150+, unless you get a shallow point for triggering. Deep but variable snowpack is hard to define. Does it mean that the weakest spot on the slope is 150cm above the persistent WL, and the rest of the slope deeper. Or does it mean that the average HST above the WL is 150, and sign. shallower spots around them.
SH causes releases on less than 25 degrees, but I haven't seen any below 20.
HST will form slab in these conditions. Timing is important.
Wind transport mitigated in trees.
Depends on timing.
Unlikely scenario. 30 to 60 cm HN with wind and warming and naturals will produce test scores and fracture character.
Depends ion timing.
it might be possible to trigger the slab, given the weak interface and terrain features, but it likely won't be a loose wet avalanche.
conditions sound OK now, but may deteriorate rapidly with the crust breaking down
should be able to ski cut slope without problems
With the given paramaters, it could be that an avalanche would be loose & moist... I would have to be there I guess.
Slope angle <20 degreea trumps instability
I would like to know ski penetration into the "corn".  For my answer I'm assuming 2 cms
only positiv is the fact that the slb is small
most likely would need more weight to trigger than one skier, very deep slab
I htink unlikely to trigger given the hard crust, depth of weak layer and mature forest
I am assuming the solid crust is a melt freeze crust. I have a hard time seeing a skier able to trigger a slab on the interface if it is protected by this MF crust
slope angle and the solid thick crust are key points for me
as a practitioner my perspective focuses on what happens on a given day and the numbers (Statistics) involved over longer timeframes is difficult to understand as it may be years before identical conditions occur on the same slope
The rapid warming and solar radiation will create a different problem than wind slab but will be an issue.
how can it be protected from wind transport yet have hard winds slabs?
even though a windward slope there may be areas of windslab in gullies or specific terrain features.
I'd be watching for a slab change with the warming temps
Not sure how a 20 degree slope with mature timber can require full commitment or can have a serious terrain trap.
I'm relying on the mature timber for protection from significant avalanches
the solid crust should bridge the interface at 30-60. Problems would come where the crust was not solid ie around rocks.
maybe near the terrain trap?
I'm assuming mature timber, staying out of glades
likely peak activity has passed but is still possible
Despite observing signs of recent slab activity my assessment indicates very slight chance of triggering .This almost completely due to low slope angle.
Due to low slope angle and depth of weakness
Low slope angle again key to this assessment. To me so much would depend on if there would be significantly steeper parts above the average 20 degrees
chances of triggering are less because of the depth of the weakness and the mature timber
if I decided to ski this type of terrain in this given situation, 1:1000 chance...
easy skier triggering is coming as the slab settles. Being in mature timber and a relatively gentle slope will help decrease the frequency of triggering
I'd say it is trending toward 1 in 10 as rain continues and with cross-loading of the slope there may be a shallow trigger point that will get hit
more worried about a slab with the cohesive snow
Due to low slope angle
Some of the information seems to be irrelevant here; eg; whether or not there is a terrain trap may not have any bearing on triggering an avalanche, however this is a consideration for me!
not until the slab settles
slab is there but most of the terrain is not steep enough. I'm sure some smaller terrain features  could slide
I think the slab is there but not the terrain steepness over a wide area
the slab is forming
to me it sounds like the layer is failing, but not propogating easily, the temp change may affect this for the worse
I just dont see how there can be a slope "protected from any wind transport yet still have "hard wind slabs "and "widespread signs of recent transport"..
the weakness is deep and will be harder to trigger, the slope is not steep, but someplaces it can be triggered, no doubt
depth of weak layer MAY be an advantage but rapid warming are a key flag
new snow + rain, HST avalanche much higher chance, deep slab, maybe less  likley.
Pt release for sure, slabs less likely  but incr. likely-hood with time (upper pack consolidating with solar and temp warming/settlement
if skiers are affecting this layer it should go with every skier
triggering most likely from shallow spots in the variable snowpack
perhaps only on the very stepest part of the convexity on the
cohesive snow low likelyhood of loose avalanches
but will it run anywhere?
you might trigger the slope or those adjacent perhaps but it's not going to go anywhere
This is tough for me. because of how 'protected from the wind' intercepts with winds strong enough to produce hard slabs. If it is fully protected from this wind, risk from wind slabs is near zero, but if wind was strong enough to reach in anyway, and 60 cm of snow then watch out. Kind of need to be there
It all hinges on the 'protected from wind'
but mostly small since it would have to be a 'feature' within the <20 degree slope. Of course, if that results in going over the cliff 3 meters away !
But I would never ski such a slope under these weather conditions becuase of deeper problems
but much higher chance of something deeper. The combination of high temps and unsupported is not good
This very hard. This looks exactly the sort of run we retreat to at times like this. If you can guide around the 25x25m slope - give 'er because trees will hold it all together
if the Cr is intact NO wet loose, if it is broken down the hightly likely
if the surface is frozen, go for itbut as soon as it thaws, stay away
Would not expect a loose wet avalanche under corn snow conditions assoc. with other field obs
Question - the slope is not exposed to direct sunlight, but...solar radiation is affecting the slope??
It would be helpful to quantify the size of the avalanche, for example - an avalanche larger than size 1. In loose snow conditions, we frequently cause small avalanches, however it is only the presence of a terrain trap or being pushed into a tree that presents an issue to a skier etc.
from isolated wind transport
perhaps on the steepest roll on the convexity
if the terrain is protected from the wind , but assuming it is wind affected
X-wind
How much wind?
solid sfc Cr is positive, but solar radn is the likely,
right now given the crust
This is a hit and miss. because it is slightly refrozen does not take away from a potential hazard. things can change very quickly
given Cr is solid very low chance of wet slab
lack of weak layers
Its highly unlikely that a slope this large with no significant vegitation would be protected from any wind tranport/affect
very moderate slope
Slope not exposed to directe sunlight yet solar radiation is significantly affecting the snow surface despite the fact that the temperature is below freezing. This isn't a 'normal' combination...
I can not answer this question accurately without knowing whether or not a windslab exits on this slope.
based on that there is no windslab on this slope. the snow and slab are sitting on the other side in the lee where there is a high degree of triggering
I'm finding this hard to answer because there are 2 key pieces missing that being the time of day which is key in this situation and if there is any wind blowing which will affect temp penetrating,
the point that concerns me the most over the long term/high use of the slope is "variable snowpack" which ramps up the chance of finding a trigger point
again with all these wet slides the time of day is a key part of the descion for me, generally speaking there is such a big difference between am &pm
I might be missing the point, I'm sure if the slide would be wet but it looks dodgey
the slab is only part of the problem here, the sfc will likly be moving (sluffs) in that type of terrain this is what I'd be most worried about (very worried)
Only possible on a local, steep roll
i don't think its steep enough
could be worse as that sun and air temp work their magic
sorry I've never seen this condition
Generally I wouldn't expect a slope with mature timber to be able to produce 50x50m slabs, but since it can the odds go up.
slope angle is the key factor for me
Less than 20 degrees makes it unlikely even though the condition may be touchy
Slope angle again. Unlikely
If a slope is protected from wind transport then there shouldn't be any wind slabs on it.
because of the solar radiation
If it's protected from wind transport then there is no chance of triggering a wind slab avalanche
Assuming wet slushy snow only present on solar slopes, as air temps are below freezing.
Only due to apparent lack of a weak interface
not sure how you can have dense wind slabs observed but also have a sope protected from any wind transoer???
if there is no slab there should be no storm slab avalanches...