Inconsistency between test scores and fracture character.
I'm not sure I understand how PSki can be 15cm, when there is a hard crust less than 10cm deep.
somewhat unrealistic scenario with temps below freezing and wet, slushy surface snow
daytime temps being above freezing
SAomewhat unrealistic with corn snow in the rain
This is mixing a pwl issue with the loose dry avalanche problem! If I'm asked to only worry about loose dry avaanches, the pwl issue becomes irrelelvant but is this really what you want to know?
The puzzeling factor is the absence of any test results,
the puzzle again is the absense of test scores, obviously somewhat unrealistic
persistant shears but no naturals, additional triggers needed
Somewhat unrealistic with over 60cm of HN24, could be the dream day but whats about the exposure
I must be a wuss - all of these look very serious to me - just not big on 90+ cm on a weak interface. Perhaps I need a silly serious rating to differentiate
ssomwhat unrealistic considewring it has been raining for three hours and theps are below freezing, not very likely scenario
easy and very easy shears with resistant fractures or breaks? A bit odd.
I dont exactly want to call this unrealistic, however the primary ob (slabs today) stands out and would make me question the other obs and hence the   somewhat serious
For this whole section I am guessing that I am totally discounting the possibility of a slab release. I.e. rising temps won't give me a slab problem
cohesive snow and loose avalanche? Is it different on this slope from the ones with loose avalanches? Do I have a slab problem even though I assume not?
might be serious because of slab formation
deteriorating fast
as long as the crust supports
you had to throw in the rain, but the crust is holding
since the weakness is more than 150 down I can't really see all the other hazard points happening!
Most difficult to forecast: natural cycle tapering off, but skier triggering is likely.
30 to 60 cm is where SH tends to be triggerable. Unlikely to see no test scores and no fracture character with this scenario. Natural signs weak.
Unlikely scenario. 60 cm HST with wind will produce shears. Slabbing will be fast with warming.
Very large recent additional load.
Bad combination of temp and rain.
Sometimes when I am out, I do not care if the slab is wet, or not, and when the transition from dry to wet occurs. Therefore any slab represents a similar concern, altho a wet slab is more analagous to a deep slab than a storm slab. Typically also a wet slab means shitty skiing, so in all likelihood, a better option than skiing shitty wet snow exists.
Unlikely scenario. 30 to 60 cm HN with wind will produce test scores and fracture character.
This is not really a storm slab problem, but a deep slab problem with recent loading.
This is a deep slab problem.
That's a funky one too, on one hand I have hard windslabs, on the other hand no signs of recent wind transport, go figure
the problem will  escalate if temps rise
I would be watching conditions closely for the crust to break down with rain and warm temps.
I find it hard to imagine a weak layer producing whumphs and cracks but not test score results or fracture character. It would be very concerning to have these field obs.
Dense wind slab and windslabs frome yesterday.. yet no or isolated signs of recent wind transport? and 60cm HN sounds spooky
Curious how a dense wind slab over a weak interface has no test results.
once again, curious about the stability test scores.
It seems odd to find signs of natural activity in this case.   (1st statement)
It depends on the rate that the surface crust breaks down due to radiation
Would be more concerned when cooling takes place!
Unlikely to trigger in mature forest
Slightly refrozen, radiation below threshold good increasing tension and forming wetslab
increasing load due to rise in temps
Possibly rain will run on the crust but over time it is possible to get wet slide avalanche but I would consider this scenario for wet slab avalanches
with the rain and above freezing temps I would be watching for the crust to break down and naturals to possibly start
this is a confusing scenario with natural activity yet a thick solid crust. One could interpret this as the terrain one is standing on is solid but terrain above one's head, perhaps around rocks, is suspect. I hesitate to flag the scenario as unrealistic but my answwers may be inconsistent.
the problem may not be serious right at the moment, but I would be watching for it to change given the incoming solar radiation
the solar radiation may shortly settle the slab and change fracture characteristics to sudden planar
I am assuming the cracks/whumphs are in the thin breakable surface wind slab and the test results refer to the thin wind slab and not the layer down 90-120.
Unlikely with cold temps and depth of instability to have easy results
I would have expected stability test results at the interface given your set of conditions and the field signs
test results might change quickly with the rising temps
conditions will change as the crust breaks down with the warm temps
With 60 Hn, signs of previous avalanche activity may be obscured.
avalanches likely won't be widespread but are possible and serious
Signs of persistant slabs are a relevant sign of instability...even if a few days old
isolated avalanches possible but with serious consequences
How rapid was the temperature rise from what (i.e. was it -10 or -2 B4 the rise
There are a lot of typically contradictory observations here.
given slope angle, and temp rise caution
mixed message here,
Hard to have slushy snow and below freezing daytime temps.
it won't trigger easily at that depth but will be serious if it does
as the slab settles with the rain the fracture characteristic may change soon
signs of avalanches, whumphs or cracks yet no test scores or fracture characteristics? Doesn't seem to fit.
I'd be more worried about a storm snow slab
these are slab conditions
more worried about slab formation
Rain is not common with below freezing temps, but seems quite common in these scenarios.
I am discounting the wind as far as storm slabs go, but would watch for wind slabs in open areas
it may change from loose dry to a slab with the radiation
the loose snow may settle into a slab with the warming. No slab yet.
this weakness mau wake up with the temp rise
no slab yet, it is coming
mixed messages here below freezing but rain has started falling...also signs of persistent weak slabs running yet no instability, not realistic
The rain and below freezing unrealistic comb again, Rain generally means means bad at any time...in combo with Na avalanches and signs of instability
Temperature rises are the real key here
Rain and lot of new snow, maybe just new snow instabilities, but maybe it migfht step down
I don't think I've ever seen a scenario where the weakness is that deep yet produces whoomfs and cracks. I would expect a lot of bridging at that depth
how much bridging is there?
rain on recent HST with Na already happening,
all looks good except that there's new avalanches and it's raining
loose dry snow yet widespread signs of recent wind transport
looks good until you add the warming toward 0 degrees.
likelyhood high of loose avalanches but relatively shallow, now lets add terrain
not for loose avalanches due to cohesive sfc
incr temps and solar incr chance if somewhat shallow
but hightly untrustworthy
even thought slabs are older than yesterday rapid rise in temps tips the balance
for PWL the slabs yesterday still make me nervous, then combine the rapid warming make me go this is more serious
its 150 com down but where getting some whumpfs, then add warming..
slabs yesterday, it's still hot, add temps and solar radn...
A very small amount of wind might be the tipping point here
I would be surprised to find these conditions without solar effect to drive them
So long as the Cr is intact no worries, as soon as Cr breaks down due to rain then it moves over past somewhat serious
as the day warms up the scale will move to more serious
I am wondering why we had wet slabs to day under these conditions. Were they from extreme terrain?
in genereal all scenarios have had the surface snow as cohesive. how cohesive? This is important and I need to feel it to better answer these. Sems to be a point I am wondering about or trying to assess when reading this. It's frustrating taking the servey because I can't do a ski cut or some other assessment to see the results.
Is it 10-30 deep above the crust or below it?
assuming the slabs are elsewhere as its only a thin slab/skin, but lost of snow recently makes me concerned
what is the density of the HN and HST?
The first 2 obs are inconsistent. Whumpfs would be a sign of the persistent slab.
Usually not serious while until sfc is freezing, air temps, good but caution on solar aspects
only for wet slabs while the 15 to 20 cms Cr later in the day
I don't like the rain...but it says a solid crust. would want to monitor this
no result or no test completed?
are the sudden fractures due to isolating a solid crust...this is typical
if there was wet slabs from from today I'd be more concerned
if the  crust is solid all is good, but  if datime warming melts  it it becomes more serious
since there are wet slabs from yesterday I'm more concerned but there's no weka layer
Na activity, but no weak layer
Not sure if you mean wind slabs that have released in 'signs of'... or signs of windslabs (which is similar to point 9)
Easy to very easy with RP not likely.
It will not be a dry surface avalanche for long
how much rain?
again easy test results with rp is not very real.
The solar radiation must have firmed up the snow surface. However, I thought from the initial slope description that the slope was not affected by incoming radiation...
As with scenario 1, we have a slope that it not on a solar aspect yet solar radiation is significantly affecting the snow surface despite the temperature being below zero.
What depth is the cohesive layer?
I don't seem to follow the obs well, what I understand is there are no recent slides, but there is cracking and whumping, no wind transport so no wind slab just a hst type slab on a bad interface with rising temps
stability is likely det with rise in temp
this doesn't make sense how could you have a hard wind slab and have had +60cms hst past 24 with no wind, that would mean any wind slab would be down 60cms and couldn't produce a drum like sound, sorry pascal I can't answer this, i'll put somewhat serious and mpve on
if there are signs of deep persistant slabs from today I would like to hope that those are very relevant signs of instability
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It's all about manageing the terrain.  With loose snow, it's about getting out of the way so it doesn't take you down and get hurt in a terrain trap.  The bigger potential problem would be slab avalanches, which I imagine could be a problem with 60 cm of new snow!!
Now, you're making me worry more, because of the thaw instability.  I would be more concerned about slabs!!  But, even the loose snow could get a bit ugly with these conditions
Depends on how much solar radiation over the previous several days.  If it's the 1st day since the last snowfall, then a bit more serious.  But....when are we going to talk about slab avalanches, which are usually the bigger problem????
I would not expect a "solid 20 cm crust" to result in avalanches while still frozen
once again no slab no avalanche
"wind slabs from today" not consistent with "no or isolated signs of transport"